Issue 11, Sep 24 · Midterm Digest

01Race developments

Kansas · Senate

Marshall's billing practices become a Cook-cited vulnerability

Cook Political Report analysts pointed to scrutiny of Sen. Roger Marshall's (R) billing practices from his years as a practicing OB-GYN as a factor opening up a race Republicans had considered safe, against Democrat Adam Hamilton.

Cook Political Report, via Denver Gazette · Sept 23, 2026

South Carolina · Senate

GOP privately uneasy about Graham's soft polling, turnout risk

Republican strategists cited by Cook flagged soft polling numbers and turnout concerns for incumbent Sen. Graham (R) against Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews, in a seat the party has not had to defend seriously in decades.

Cook Political Report, via Denver Gazette · Sept 23, 2026

Georgia · Senate

Collins still lags Ossoff in money and profile despite Trump, Kemp backing

Rep. Mike Collins (R) continues to trail Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in fundraising and statewide profile even with endorsements from President Trump and Gov. Kemp, per Cook's analysis. The two campaigns traded new attacks during separate stops in Georgia this week.

Denver Gazette; WCTV · Sept 23, 2026

New York · Governor

Hochul tops 50% for the first time this cycle

A new Siena College poll has Gov. Hochul at 50% to Republican Blakeman's 41% among likely voters — the first time she's cracked the 50% mark in a Siena survey this cycle, though her overall lead has edged down one point from a 10-point August reading.

Siena College, via ABC7 New York · Sept 23, 2026

02Polling & forecasts

Rating change · Senate

Cook moves three Senate races toward Democrats

Cook Political Report shifted three ratings on Wednesday: Georgia (Lean D → Likely D), Kansas (Likely R → Lean R), and South Carolina (Solid R → Likely R). Analyst Jessica Taylor described a "very blue environment forming," citing voter frustration over gas prices, cost of living, and the Iran war.

Cook Political Report; Axios · Sept 23, 2026

No new Sabato's Crystal Ball rating changes turned up today — its last batch (MI Senate, OH Governor) ran in yesterday's issue. National generic-ballot trackers (NPR/PBS/Marist, Silver average) are unchanged from yesterday's numbers; no fresh read published today.

03Election administration & security

No notable new administration or security developments in the last 24–48 hours beyond what ran in yesterday's issue (a federal judge's dismissal of the DOJ's suit for Washington State's full voter roll, one of roughly 25 such DOJ losses nationwide). The SAVE-database case remains fully briefed and pending at the Supreme Court, with no ruling as of this morning. As always: no likelihood-of-stealing-the-election score here — that isn't something that can be meaningfully quantified.

04Seat-change score

Today

Three confirmed race-rating movements today, all toward Democrats (Cook: GA, KS, SC Senate). Flat ±1 per race regardless of how many rating notches it crossed — polls, fundraising, and endorsements don't count.

Date	Score	What drove it
Sep 18	0	None confirmed
Sep 19	+5	NJ-7, MI-4, IA-1, IA-2, CO-5 all moved D-ward (Sabato)
Sep 20	+1	IA Senate Lean R → Toss-up (Cook)
Sep 21	0	None confirmed
Sep 22	0	None confirmed
Sep 23	+2	MI Senate Toss-up → Leans D; OH Governor Leans R → Toss-up (Sabato; piece reportedly moved 10 races, only these 2 independently confirmed)
Sep 24	+3	GA, KS, SC Senate all D-ward (Cook)

7-day sum: +11. Every qualifying move in this window has run toward Democrats — no confirmed R-ward rating change has posted since before Sept 16. Score = sum of confirmed nonpartisan race-rating changes that day (Cook, Sabato, etc.); polls, fundraising, endorsements, and aggregate probability/generic-ballot numbers don't count, and this is separate from the election-security section above.