Midterm Election Digest

Republicans privately worried about slipping grip on North Carolina and Georgia Senate seats

CNN reporting from inside GOP strategy circles describes real anxiety about Michael Whatley's race against Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Mike Collins's race against Jon Ossoff in Georgia. A GOP super PAC, Old North Action, cut its North Carolina ad reservations by roughly a third. Longtime strategist Karl Rove was blunt: "We're not going to win either one."

Senate Majority Leader John Thune's Atlanta fundraiser for Collins brought in $400,000+, but Sen. John Cornyn pointedly left both Collins and Whatley off the invite list for his own recent fundraiser. Collins's campaign argues roughly 1 in 10 Georgia voters, mostly Trump backers, are still gettable.

Deep South Democrats point to real organizing gains in Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia

An AP wire report finds concrete, if modest, evidence behind Democratic optimism in the Deep South: Alabama's Democratic primary turnout has roughly doubled since 2022, with some counties casting more Democratic than Republican primary votes for the first time in years. Former Sen. Doug Jones is running for governor and Shomari Figures for a U.S. House seat, each having raised about $1.3 million; in Mississippi, Scott Colom is challenging Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Georgia's Ossoff and Warnock are cited as the region's clearest "bright spot."

The piece frames this as organizing progress, not a prediction of Deep South upsets — Alabama and Mississippi remain heavy underdog territory for Democrats.

Maine Senate: a second, contradictory poll — this one has Jackson ahead

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center's "Pine Tree State Poll" (1,312 likely voters, fielded Sept 17–21, published Sept 25) has Troy Jackson (D) at 51% to Susan Collins (R) at 47% — a statistical tie. That's the mirror image of the NYT/Siena poll already covered here (Collins 49, Jackson 46, published Sept 24, fielded almost the same week). Read together, the two polls say the same thing: Maine is a true toss-up with no clear directional trend, not that either side has actually moved.

Supreme Court blocks the GOP-favored Missouri map for a third time

The Court again refused to let Missouri use a new, Trump- and Gov. Mike Kehoe-backed congressional map for 2026, halting a federal appeals court ruling that would have revived it. In an unsigned opinion, the justices wrote that switching maps "in the midst of an ongoing election would usher in electoral chaos." Missouri will vote this November under the same district lines used in 2022 and 2024. The Missouri Supreme Court had already ruled that a citizen referendum must approve the new map before it can take effect, and the U.S. Supreme Court let that stand. At least 16 separate lawsuits have been filed over the map, which had redrawn Kansas City-area Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's (D) district to shift roughly 59% of its voters.

CISA releases a midterm election security plan, but skips the specifics

CISA unveiled its 2026 election security plan: regional directors will serve as dedicated election-security advisers, a new free information-sharing platform for election officials, technical risk assessments, and classified monthly briefings reaching 70+ secure sites nationwide. What it doesn't say: staffing numbers or dedicated funding. The Trump administration's proposed FY2027 budget would eliminate CISA's election-security program entirely, pending Congress. Michigan officials have already reported losing contact with CISA staff after earlier cuts, and reporting indicates the administration doesn't plan to issue additional public or declassified foreign-threat warnings this cycle, a departure from 2024 practice.