01Race developments
Movement in competitive Senate, House and governor races.
New Hampshire sets its Senate matchup: Sununu vs. Pappas for Shaheen's open seat
In the September 8 primary, Trump-endorsed former Gov. John E. Sununu won the Republican nomination over seven rivals, including former Massachusetts state senator Scott Brown. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas beat democratic-socialist challenger Karishma Manzur for the Democratic nod. The two will compete for retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's seat — a race Republicans see as their best shot at a New England pickup, in a state that hasn't elected a GOP senator since 2010.
Al Jazeera · Sept 9, 2026 — aljazeera.com
Bipartisan poll finds sharp Hispanic-voter drop-off from Trump's 2024 Texas coalition
A Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision poll of Texas Hispanic voters, conducted by Democratic pollster Hart Research and Republican pollster OnMessage Inc. (Aug 26–Sept 3), found Trump's job approval at just 33% among this group despite their strong 2024 support for him. Democratic candidates led 2-to-1 in both the Senate and governor races among Hispanic respondents, and Democrats held a 53%–39% generic-ballot edge in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas — the region behind marquee House races in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34.
Cook Political Report · Sept 10, 2026 — cookpolitical.com
02Polling & forecasts
Ratings and forecast moves that actually changed — not restated old numbers.
Cook Political Report flips a Missouri House seat back to Solid Democrat after SCOTUS map ruling
Following Monday's Supreme Court order restoring Missouri's 2022 congressional map (see Sept 11 digest), Cook moved MO-05 (Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's seat) from Solid Republican back to Solid Democrat, and moved MO-02 from Solid Republican to Likely Republican to reflect the restored, less-GOP-favorable lines.
Cook Political Report · Sept 11, 2026 — cookpolitical.com
Cook Political Report moves two governor races — one toward each party
Oregon's governor race moved from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, with Cook citing Democratic concerns that Gov. Tina Kotek's reelection is tighter than the party would like. Alaska's governor race moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, as a three-Republican, one-Democrat field opens the door to a more competitive contest.
Cook Political Report · Sept 10, 2026 — cookpolitical.com
CNN/SSRS: Maine and Michigan Senate races both inside the margin of error
A CNN poll conducted by SSRS (Aug 31–Sept 6) found both marquee Senate races too close to call:
Maine's sample (880 likely voters, ±3.7 pts) and Michigan's (843 likely voters, ±4.1 pts) both leave the Democratic edge within the margin of sampling error — directionally consistent with other recent polling of both races.
CNN / SSRS · Sept 9, 2026 — cnn.com
Iowa poll: Republican Hinson leads Senate race; Democrat Sand leads for governor
An Emerson College/Nextstar Media poll of Iowa (Aug 31–Sept 1, ±3.6 pts) found a split picture on the same ballot: Republican Ashley Hinson led Democrat Josh Turek 50%–45% for the open Senate seat, while Democrat Rob Sand led Republican Zach Lahn 49%–46% for governor. Pollsters noted roughly 6% of respondents were splitting their ticket across the two races.
Emerson College Polling / Nextstar Media · Sept 8, 2026 — kcrg.com
03Election administration & security
What officials, courts, and credible reporting have actually found — no speculation, no "stolen election" scoring.
DHS asks Supreme Court to revive citizenship-screening voter database; response due Sept 15
DHS filed an emergency application on September 8 asking the Supreme Court to let it resume using an overhauled version of the SAVE database — originally built to verify immigration status for benefits applicants, now expanded to cross-check voter rolls using Social Security Administration data. A federal district court found in June 2026 that adding SSA data violated privacy law, and a federal appeals court declined earlier this month to lift that block. DHS says the system has verified citizenship for over 65 million voters across 26 states while flagging 28,635 people as potential noncitizens — a figure the agency has not made public methodology for, and comparable DHS claims in other states (including a Nevada figure revised from 15,903 down to 185, reported in this digest's first issue) have previously been walked back after challenge. The Supreme Court has ordered voting-rights groups to respond by September 15; the database remains blocked until then.
NOTUS · Sept 8–9, 2026 — notus.org