Midterm Election Digest

Senate · TXPaxton–Talarico race on pace to shatter Texas Senate spending record. Combined candidate + outside spending has hit $153M and is projected to reach $440M by Election Day — more than double the $210M record set by the 2024 Cruz–Allred race. Talarico (D) has spent ~$50M on ads directly vs. Paxton's (R) $465K, but Paxton is backed by $98.5M in super PAC spending (Texas PAC $62.4M, MAGA Inc. $11M) against $3.7M backing Talarico. Separately, both candidates are pitching cuts to the federal gas tax while courting Hispanic voters.

Senate · MEJackson sharpens attack on Collins over Iran war, ICE. Democrat Troy Jackson said Trump "owns" Sen. Susan Collins (R), criticizing her for not opposing continued U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict or ICE enforcement actions in Maine — part of an increasingly personal closing stretch in a toss-up race.

Governor · OHRamaswamy draws GOP criticism over ~$690K in private jet spending. Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign spent nearly $690K leasing aircraft for short in-state trips, including payments to a leasing entity registered at his own address — raising self-dealing concerns from campaign-finance watchdogs given he has loaned his campaign $25M+. A Marietta, Ohio GOP city council president cited the spending in her endorsement of Democrat Amy Acton; a former county GOP chair called it indefensible given Ramaswamy's affordability-focused message.

Senate · AKFallout continues from NYT report on Peltola's treatment of staff. Coverage this week revisited the Times' Sept 23 report in which former aides described hostile behavior by Democrat Mary Peltola, including a directive that staff care for a family pet and a written remark hoping a Planned Parenthood board member would "die of a botched abortion" after a delayed endorsement. Peltola's campaign called the account exaggerated, citing personal tragedies including her husband's death in a plane crash; Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) offered sympathy rather than piling on, calling it "a very challenging situation." The race against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) remains close. This is the first mention of this story in this digest.

Maine Senate — a third, conflicting poll. UMass Lowell/YouGov (fielded Aug 28–Sept 14, n=650 LV, published Sept 24) had Jackson (D) leading Collins (R) 48–43. That's a third data point this month pointing three different directions: NYT/Siena had Collins +3 (published Sept 24), UNH had Jackson +4 (published Sept 25). Read together, this looks like genuine race volatility rather than a trend in either direction — not a rating change.

Missouri map fight: a live referendum question, on top of Tuesday's SCOTUS ruling. Adding a detail to the Sept 25 Supreme Court order (already covered) reverting Missouri to its 2022 congressional map for the November election: Missouri voters will separately decide a referendum on November 3 on whether to permanently adopt the 2025 GOP-drawn map or repeal it for good. So the map question stays live at the ballot box even after this week's court ruling settled which lines apply to this cycle's House race.