Midterm Election Digest

A new Fox News poll (field Sept 24–28, 881 LV, ±3) has James Talarico (D) edging Ken Paxton (R) 51–49 — within the margin of error, and close to the Texas Tribune's own 2-point tracker. Despite $200M+ in outside spending this cycle, the race hasn't moved much in either direction. The Washington Post reports both campaigns launched new dueling ad flights this week.

Fox 7 Austin, Oct 2 · Washington Post, Oct 2

The Senate Leadership Fund — which had pledged $71M to defend the seat and already spent $30M — is pulling its remaining $18M in North Carolina ad reserves entirely and shifting it to Kansas (see below). A smaller GOP group, Old North Action, already moved $6.5M out in September. Roy Cooper (D) led Michael Whatley (R) 53–41 in a mid-September YouGov poll.

NC Newsline, Oct 2 · reporting cites Semafor

A seat Roger Marshall (R) won by 11 points in 2020, in a state Trump carried by 16, is drawing real defensive money for the first time: SLF has booked $8.2M and Marshall's campaign $2.3M, against $590K from Adam Hamilton (D) and $556K in outside Democratic support. Two former Republican governors, Mike Hayden and Bill Graves, have endorsed Hamilton; the state Democratic chair points to diesel-price pain from the Iran war hitting Kansas farmers, including Republican ones.

KCTV5, Oct 2

A CNN analysis of ballot-request data across 30+ states finds Democrats running ahead of their 2024 pace in several battlegrounds: Iowa (67% vs. 54%), Pennsylvania (66% vs. 62%), Maine (57% vs. 53%), and North Carolina (42% vs. 36%). The gap is widest in Virginia, where heavily Harris-voting localities are at 78% of 2024 turnout versus 61% in Trump-voting areas. CNN is explicit that request data can't reveal who anyone actually voted for, and that early voters skew older and more Democratic than the eventual electorate — a signal, not a forecast.

CNN, Oct 1

Nate Silver's generic-ballot average has moved to D+9.0 as of Oct 2 (D+9.6 with a likely-voter adjustment applied) — up from D+6.7 entering September and, per Silver's own write-up, a high point for Democrats this cycle. This is an aggregate trend line, not a race-rating change, so it doesn't feed the seat-change score below.

Silver Bulletin, Oct 2

CBS News/YouGov (field Sept 23–Oct 1, 1,144 RV, ±4.7) has Susan Collins (R) and Troy Jackson (D) tied, with Collins helped by voters who say they're focused on state rather than national issues. That's the fourth different read on this race this month — Jackson has led by anywhere from 4 to 5 points elsewhere, Collins by 3 in one NYT/Siena poll — which continues to look like pollster-to-pollster noise rather than a real trend in either direction.

CBS News, Oct 2

No confirmed Cook, Sabato, or Inside Elections rating changes today. Cook's Senate page is unchanged since Sept 23, its House page unchanged since the Sept 25 batch, and its governors' page unchanged since the Oct 1 Texas/Florida move already logged. No new Sabato pieces turned up beyond the already-scored Sept 29–30 House batch.

The DNC sued the Trump administration over a Defense Department change to the overseas-voter registration postcard that removes a checkbox, in place since 2013, used by U.S. citizens who've never lived stateside but qualify to vote in 38 states through a parent or spouse. The suit alleges the change was pushed through under an emergency declaration that bypassed normal rulemaking. Roughly 11,500 voters used that checkbox in 2016; the number has likely grown since.

Reporting on the DNC complaint, Oct 1

Nothing new since yesterday's issue on the ICE-at-polling-places dispute: DHS's denial that agents will be stationed at voting sites, and the civil-rights coalition's suits to block that and run voter-confidence programs in battlegrounds, remain the latest word. No new ruling has come down. Similarly, no new developments found on the Georgia voter-roll cases or the Missouri redistricting fight beyond what's already been covered this week.

Two former Republican governors of Kansas — Mike Hayden and Bill Graves — just endorsed the Democrat running for a seat their own party has held safely for decades, in a state Trump won by 16. It's a small story next to the bigger spending numbers above, but it's the kind of quietly remarkable crossover that's easy to miss in the headline-chasing coverage.

KCTV5, Oct 2