Midterm Election Digest

Despite an unprecedented outside-money blitz for Paxton — Thune's Texas PAC has put in $131M (including $122M in September alone), plus nearly $24M from Trump's super PAC, pushing total outside spending past $205M, 98% of it for Paxton — the race has barely moved. The Texas Tribune's own poll tracker has Talarico at 47.3% today, essentially flat from a month ago, with his lead narrowing slightly to 2 points; one internal Paxton poll even shows him up 3.

Texas Tribune, Oct 1

A fresh NPR feature on Brown's effort to win back working-class voters notes a split within labor: building-trades councils in Cleveland and Toledo, plus the Boilermakers union, have endorsed Husted (R) — even as Brown's campaign points to the Social Security Fairness Act's 76-20 passage restoring benefits to Ohio public employees. Race still framed as a true toss-up.

NPR, Oct 2

Peltola (D) released a new ad explicitly telling voters to "forget party, forget politics," leaning on her NRA A-rating, her record opposing Biden-era border policy, and credit for a major Alaska oil project — a notable distancing from the Democratic label as she runs against Sullivan (R) in a state Trump has carried three times. Cook still calls the race a toss-up; an AARP poll has her up 46-41.

various outlets, Oct 1

Cook Political Report moved both the Texas and Florida governor's races from Likely Republican to Lean Republican (Oct 1), citing Trump's weak approval numbers "up and down the ballot." Cook frames it as Democrats now within range of an upset in two states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 — part of what would be Democrats' first gubernatorial majority since 2010 if the cycle breaks their way.

Cook Political Report (via Washington Post, Oct 1)

New Fox News poll (field Sept 24–28, n=1,008 LV/1,204 RV): Turek (D) 49, Hinson (R) 47 among likely voters (50-46 among registered voters) — notably tighter than the Marist poll that had Turek up 8 points in late September. Read as volatility rather than a clear trend; Cook and Sabato ratings for this race are unchanged.

Fox News, Oct 1

A Marist poll out Oct 1 shows Talarico (D) leading Paxton (R) 50-44 among registered voters — a wider gap than the Texas Tribune's own tracker (above), which has the race within 2 points. The two trackers disagree on margin size but agree Talarico remains ahead.

Marist, Oct 1

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin says immigration officers will not be stationed at polling places and called concerns "fearmongering," though he acknowledged ICE could still respond to specific incidents like serving warrants. Asked directly, Trump told Time he "hasn't thought of it." Civil rights groups (LULAC, OCA-Asian Pacific American Advocates) aren't taking that at face value: they're filing suit to keep ICE away from voting locations, recruiting election monitors, and running a voter-confidence program ("VoteSafe") in battleground states with large minority populations and competitive Senate races.

ABC News, Oct 2