Midterm Election Digest

TX SENATETrump rallied for Ken Paxton at San Antonio's Freeman Coliseum Wednesday night, his third Texas visit in under a month; protesters interrupted the speech at least a dozen times and several were escorted out. Trump called Paxton "perhaps the greatest attorney general in the United States," but spent much of the speech on other topics and did not address Paxton's leaked audio (below). Gov. Abbott skipped the event for a hospital dedication 330 miles away.

AP via ABC News, Oct 8

TX SENATEA third leaked recording of Paxton surfaced this week (Axios, Oct 7): in private remarks to donors last month, he called the Iran war and high gas/diesel prices "by far our biggest problem" and said it explains his sliding numbers. Two earlier leaks from the same meeting ran via NYT (Sept 30) and Politico (Oct 5). His campaign called the latest one a "non-story." A recent NYT/Siena poll had Talarico at 51%, Paxton at 45%.

Forbes (citing Axios), Oct 7

TX GOVERNORAbbott's rally no-show (above) drew Democratic criticism; he faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa in a race both sides call competitive. No new polling on this race surfaced in the last 48 hours.

AP via ABC News, Oct 8

RATING CHANGES — FOUND TODAYPulling Inside Elections' own ratings data directly (rather than press writeups) turned up a House batch dated Oct 1 that this tracker's searches had missed entirely. Most of it overlaps races already scored under Sabato's or Cook's earlier batches (OH-15, MT-01, VA-05, KY-06, CA-45, NY-21) — not double-counted. Four are genuinely new: MI-04 Lean R → Tilt R (also reported by DCCC, Oct 2), CA-22 Tilt R → Toss-up (DCCC, Oct 1), and IA-01 and IA-03 both Toss-up → Tilt D. All four D-ward; see the score section below for how they're counted.

Inside Elections ratings data (direct); DCCC releases, Oct 1–2 (secondary confirmation)

GENERIC BALLOTSilver Bulletin holds flat at D+8.9 (D+9.6 among likely voters) as of Oct 7 — unchanged from the Oct 7 issue, still this cycle's high-water mark for Democrats, not a fresh move.

Silver Bulletin, Oct 7

COOK RATINGS — CHECKED, UNCHANGEDDirect fetch of Cook's own Senate, House, and Governor ratings pages today shows no movement beyond the already-scored Oct 6 Senate batch (KS/NH/NC) and the Sept 25 House batch.

Cook Political Report, checked Oct 8

ONGOING LITIGATIONThe DNC's suit over the Pentagon/OMB's August change dropping the "never lived in the US" option from the overseas-voter registration postcard remains unresolved — still no ruling or hearing date as of this week.

Hoodline, Oct 2 (status re-confirmed Oct 8)