Midterm Digest

2026 U.S. midterms · Seat-change score

Race ratings have moved +98 toward Democrats since Sept 16

A daily, nonpartisan digest of Senate, House and governor races. Every confirmed rating change from Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections scores one point.

14 days to Election Day
Tuesday, Nov 3
Toward Democrats Toward Republicans No confirmed change Hover or tap a bar for what drove it. Click to open that day's issue.
View as table
DateScoreRunning totalWhat drove it
Sep 16−1-1NH Senate Lean D → Toss-up (Cook)
Sep 170-1No confirmed rating change
Sep 180-1None confirmed
Sep 19+5+4NJ-7, MI-4, IA-1, IA-2, CO-5 all shifted D-ward (Sabato)
Sep 20+1+5IA Senate Lean R → Toss-up (Cook)
Sep 210+5None confirmed
Sep 22+12+17Inside Elections dozen-race shift, all D-ward (Roll Call itemization; ME Senate, 6 House seats, FL Gov, ME Gov, etc.)
Sep 23+2+19Sabato: MI Senate Toss-up→Leans D; OH Gov Leans R→Toss-up
Sep 24+3+22GA Senate Lean D→Likely D; KS Senate Likely R→Lean R; SC Senate Solid R→Likely R (Cook)
Sep 250+22None confirmed
Sep 26+15+37Cook's 15-race House batch, all D-ward (GOP "on track to lose House majority")
Sep 270+37None confirmed
Sep 280+37None confirmed. Cook Senate/House unchanged.
Sep 290+37None confirmed. Cook Senate/House unchanged; this was the day before Sabato's already-published 11-race batch was caught.
Sep 300+37No confirmed Cook/Sabato/Inside Elections moves.
Oct 1+11+48Sabato 11-race House batch, all D-ward (KY-06, ME-02, MO-02, MT-01, VA-05, VA-01, NC-03, OH-15, PA-07, VA-02, CA-45)
Oct 2+1+49Cook moved TX Governor Likely R → Lean R.
Oct 30+49None confirmed.
Oct 40+49None confirmed — Cook House unchanged since Sept 25–26 batch; only stale Sabato pieces found.
Oct 50+49No confirmed moves.
Oct 60+49None confirmed.
Oct 7+5+54Cook (KS, NH, NC) + Sabato (AK, SC) Senate moves, all D-ward — dated Oct. 6, found this day
Oct 8+4+58Inside Elections' Oct 1-2 House batch (found late): MI-04, CA-22, IA-01, IA-03, all D-ward.
Oct 90+58None confirmed.
Oct 100+58None confirmed; ratings pages/feeds unreachable most of this run.
Oct 110+58None confirmed.
Oct 120+58None confirmed despite broad search; several ratings pages unreachable (PROVENANCE_REQUIRED).
Oct 13+18+76Cook's 18-race House batch (rated Oct 9, found & scored Oct 13) — all moves toward Democrats, incl. IA-01/03, PA-07/10, NC-01, MI-04
Oct 14+4+80Cook moved AK, NE, OK, VT governor races toward Democrats, citing a divided GOP field in Alaska and a worsening national environment elsewhere
Oct 150+80None confirmed
Oct 160+80None confirmed
Oct 17+18+98Large Inside Elections + Cook cross-rater batch; 18 net-new D-ward moves after excluding repeats of the Oct 13 batch
Oct 180+98None confirmed
Oct 190+98None confirmed — Cook's House page unchanged since Oct 9, Senate page unchanged since Oct 6; Sabato's and Inside Elections' pages unreachable this run
Net score+9834 days tracked
Moves toward Democrats99+1 each
Moves toward Republicans1−1 each
Days with movement14of 34
See where these moves happened, state by stateOpen the map →

How the score works

  1. +1 for each race a nonpartisan rater moves toward Democrats.
  2. −1 for each race moved toward Republicans.
  3. One point per race, however many notches it moves. Solid R to Likely R counts the same as Lean R to Toss-up.
  4. Raters that count: Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Confirmed changes only.
  5. Never counted: polls, fundraising, endorsements, the generic ballot, forecast odds or court rulings.
  6. No double counting. A second rater making the same move on the same race adds nothing. Moves found late are scored on the day they surface, so batches arrive in lumps.

Oct 14+4

Cook moves four governor races in one batch

  • AlaskaToss Up → Lean D+1
  • NebraskaSolid R → Likely R+1
  • OklahomaSolid R → Likely R+1
  • VermontSolid R → Likely R+1

Sept 16−1

Cook moves one Senate race the other way

  • New HampshireLean D → Toss-up−1

Latest · Issue No. 36 · Monday, October 19, 2026

Today's digest

  • Red-state Senate money race: Democrats dominate most Q3 hauls, but Paxton sets a GOP record and Minnesota goes the other way
  • Lifelong Democratic sheriff defects, endorses Rogers and James over crime concerns
  • Silver Bulletin average holds flat at D+8.9
  • Marist poll: Turek leads Hinson for Senate, Sand leads Lahn for governor
Read Issue 36 →

Archive 35 issues

  1. No. 36Red-state Senate money race: Democrats dominate most Q3 hauls, but Paxton sets a GOP record and Minnesota goes the other way0
  2. No. 35IA-02 House: Hinson breaks with Trump on Russia diesel deal in final debate0
  3. No. 34Texas Senate: James Talarico's campaign says it raised $64 million in Q3 (July–Sept), which it calls the largest third-quarter haul any U.S. Senate…+18
  4. No. 33Georgia Senate: Ossoff and Collins trade their sharpest attacks yet in final debate0
  5. No. 32Roy Cooper (D) 54% — Michael Whatley (R) 40% , 5% undecided, in a new WRAL/WSOC poll released Oct 13 — a notably wider lead than the Oct 7…0
  6. No. 31Texas Senate — Talarico back on the trail, debunks "stress episode" rumor, challenges Paxton on debate+4
  7. No. 30Georgia: Early voting opened today for the Ossoff–Collins Senate race, the Bottoms–Jackson governor race, and other statewide contests.+18
  8. No. 29No new developments cleared the bar today. Searched AP, Reuters, and local coverage of the most competitive Senate races (Georgia, Texas, Kansas, Michigan, North…0
  9. No. 28Ossoff and Collins trade ethics and extremism charges in first debate0
  10. No. 27Rogers and El-Sayed meet for their first debate as Trump escalates attacks on El-Sayed0
  11. No. 26New York governor0
  12. No. 25Trump rallied for Ken Paxton at San Antonio's Freeman Coliseum Wednesday night, his third Texas visit in under a month; protesters interrupted the…+4
  13. No. 24Alaska Senate: a new NYT/Siena poll (fielded Sept 24–Oct 1, 504 LV, ±5.1) has Mary Peltola (D) leading Dan Sullivan (R) 50–43, essentially unchanged…+5
  14. No. 23Ken Paxton raised $18M in Q3 — more than double his $9M Q2 haul and his best quarter yet — after becoming the uncontested GOP nominee and gaining…0
  15. No. 22Trump rallies for Husted in Vandalia, predicts a "big surprise"0
  16. No. 21GOP's North Carolina retreat widens to three states0
  17. No. 20A new Fox News poll (field Sept 24–28, 881 LV, ±3) has James Talarico (D) edging Ken Paxton (R) 51–49 — within the margin of error, and close to the…0
  18. No. 19Despite an unprecedented outside-money blitz for Paxton — Thune's Texas PAC has put in $131M (including $122M in September alone), plus nearly $24M…+1
  19. No. 18In a privately recorded fundraiser obtained by the New York Times, Ken Paxton (R) said Trump's Dallas midterm convention “dropped our numbers” for…+11
  20. No. 17National Republicans are pulling resources out of North Carolina and Georgia to shore up Texas and Ohio.0
  21. No. 16Paxton–Talarico race on pace to shatter Texas Senate spending record.0
  22. No. 15NC & GA Senate — national GOP money reportedly pulling back0
  23. No. 14Republicans privately worried about slipping grip on North Carolina and Georgia Senate seats0
  24. No. 13Turek rolls out fuel-cost plan; ethics complaint filed against Hinson; Ernst endorses Hinson+15
  25. No. 12TX Senate: Talarico challenges Paxton to a Fox News debate0
  26. No. 11Marshall's billing practices become a Cook-cited vulnerability+3
  27. No. 10A Texas Southern University poll (as cited in Forbes' daily tracker) puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 47–46 for the open…+2
  28. No. 9Former VP Kamala Harris campaigned with Abdul El-Sayed (D) in Metro Detroit this week, joined by Sen. Elissa Slotkin and ex-Rep. Sandy Levin…+12
  29. No. 8Kansas Senate — first competitive numbers logged for this seat0
  30. No. 7Cook Political Report moves open Iowa seat to Toss-up+1
  31. No. 6GOP-aligned super PACs — Senate Leadership Fund, Musk's America PAC, Americans for Prosperity Action, and Trump-linked "pop-up" groups Ohio Flyer PAC…+5
  32. No. 5Michigan Senate — A new Emerson College poll (fielded Sept 12–14) has Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 48% and Mike Rogers (R) at 46%, with 4% undecided — a…0
  33. No. 4Ohio Senate — Sherrod Brown (D) is leaning into an economic-grievance message against Jon Husted (R): rising gas prices tied to the Iran war, Canada…0
  34. No. 3In Maine, former Sen. Joe Manchin crossed party lines to endorse Sen. Susan Collins (R) over challenger Troy Jackson, calling her "the soul of the…−1
  35. No. 2New Hampshire sets its Senate matchup: Sununu vs. Pappas for Shaheen's open seatn/a